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The 2024 U.S. sorghum crop started strong thanks to good winter and spring moisture, says Kealan Griffin, lead sorghum trader with CHS. Despite some challenges from hot temperatures and drought conditions this summer in the Southern Plains, where the majority of sorghum is grown, he says yield potential is still good.
“Talking with representatives in the field, we’ll see better yields compared to the last two years, but we may have lost a little bit off the top,” Griffin says.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects 2024 sorghum yields to average 52.9 bushels per acre, compared to 52 and 41.1 bushels per acre in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Total U.S. sorghum production in 2024 is estimated at 279 million bushels, according to USDA data.
Griffin says sorghum exports for the 2024-2025 marketing year are off to a slow start. Only 2 million bushels have been sold as of early August, compared to 39 million bushels at this time the previous marketing year.
“Given market conditions the past two months, I don’t think that is too much of a shock,” he continues. “It’s hard to sit and wait for sales, but I look for this market to turn and sales to come in the weeks ahead.”
Chinese demand
The USDA projects China will import nearly 315 million bushels of sorghum during the 2024-2025 marketing year. China is by far the world’s largest sorghum buyer, accounting for 87% of global imports, according to USDA data.
China has an import quota on corn capped at 283 million bushels in 2024, and sorghum is an affordable alternative livestock, Griffin explains. About two-thirds of the sorghum China buys is fed to livestock. The rest is used to make baijiu, the most widely consumed liquor in the world.
“Chinese grain buyers will look to sorghum, along with barley and other feed grains, for use in livestock rations,” Griffin says, noting the liquor demand remains strong.
Sorghum soars
CHS has grown its sorghum business exponentially. From September 2023 through April 2024, CHS grain facilities handled more than 10.6 million bushels of sorghum compared to less than 3 million bushels in fiscal year 2023. Volumes could reach 13 million bushels by the end of fiscal year 2024, Griffin says.
He projects CHS will export about 40 million bushels of sorghum in fiscal year 2024, which includes 18 to 20 million bushels sourced from member cooperatives. Nearly all will be shipped to China.
“The cooperative system and our joint ventures have opened doors for us to pursue this growth,” Griffin says.
TEMCO, a joint venture between CHS and Cargill, was expanded in 2023 to include an export facility at the Port of Houston. That provides access to the Texas Gulf export corridor, which historically accounts for about 75% of sorghum exports. Producer Ag, a grain marketing joint venture with Mid-Kansas Cooperative, was also expanded, which provides more sorghum origination opportunities in the Southern Plains.
“These two partnerships will help drive sustained and continued growth in our sorghum business for years to come,” Griffin adds.
Eye on election
Sorghum demand and marketing opportunities could be affected by government policies, Griffin says.
“One of the most talked about topics heading into the fall will be the election. It will be important to watch for any trade or policy changes coming from whichever new administration takes office in 2025, which could impact food programs and cause a change in exports due to tariffs between the U.S. and any of our export customers.”
Learn more about TEMCO and grain export capabilities.
